Ten Predictions for a Post-Pandemic World
When the retreating immediacy of this Pandemic leads to a remobilization of life and the economy (for a time), several trends will emerge. In that sense, in the argot of Silicon Valley, the pandemic was a major “disruptor”- to the extent that its effects will change our lives and that these effects will persist even when the severity of the problem diminishes. I’ve compiled a large list of these trends and would like to share ten of them in this short piece.
Five- Post-Pandemic Trends
1. A Better balance between manufacturing and services in advanced economies is sought.
In a 2016 article in Forbes, “services” was referred to as “the only important part of the economy.” The services sector at that time — and still- was about two-thirds of US GDP and manufacturing breasted the tape at approximately one-eighth of US GDP. This lopsided, advanced-capitalist model of modernity has shown itself to be inadequate in times of crisis. As an example, during the Covid-19 pandemic, the lack of US manufacturing for basics like Personal-Protective-Equipment and Ventilators has caused thousands of deaths and has sent states into mad scrambles to find these basics. As such times, exotic financial instruments, abstruse legal services, and other inchoate and ethereal services don’t cut it. On that note, kudos to the manufacturing companies that re-tooled production lines to make live-saving equipment during this pandemic.
2. Increase in multi-generational/cooperative living commences.
In the 3 weeks preceding April 17, 2020, 22 million Americans filed for unemployment. This breathtaking statistic is outdone by another one: If an unexpected $400 expense cropped up, 40% of Americans would be either unable to pay it or would have to sell possessions to put the money together to meet the expense. When coupled, these woeful economic facts suggest that housing will likely be unaffordable for many Americans. In March, 2020, housing starts were down 22% and the sentiment of the homebuilding industry was the lowest it has been since it was measured; these all bode ill for the “American Dream” of a house for each nuclear family. When adding in the gutting of the American healthcare system and the emergence of elderly care facilities as one of the epicenters of the pandemic, and the need thus to give care to the elderly, it is likely that multi-generational living will increase in the US.
3. Nationalization of vital industries becomes an increasingly hot topic.
Face-masks might be the symbol of this trend. All great economies started by protecting industry deemed important to the nation- as part of “industrial policy” or the “infant industries” argument. Many newly decolonized countries developed their own industry via important-substitution whereby the manufacture of key goods was kept domestic and imports were limited. These processes created State-Owned industries- many of which were successful. Massive waves of privatization and “liberalization” spread across the world starting in the 1980s, offering massive State-owned works to private buyers at discounted rates, effectively, in the minds of many economists, ending industrial-policy and important-substitution-led industrialization as a means for economic planning, growth, and sustenance. In reality, many countries outside the Anglo-American consensus and those under the thumb of the IMF, retained control of many key elements of the economy; this control- through government-owned industry or nationalization will be expanded as the limits of private-markets and the market mechanism in general for areas like healthcare and education have been laid bare by recent events.
4. Rush to acquire “real skills” intensifies.
In the wake of massive lay-offs and focus on what are deemed “essential” industries and roles, people who occupy “generic” roles are the first casualties. Even in rich and growing sectors like technology, marketing, sales, and operations staff are being let-go while software developers, testers, and anyone with experience in AI, Data Science, Machine Learning and other adjacent areas has job security; in fact to the extent that hiring is still happening, it is for roles that are associated with real “skills.”
As companies take a cautious approach to hiring and labor issues in general, people will seek to make themselves competitive by acquiring skills that they deem are evergreen.
5. E-learning and Online Education disappoints.
The online education/educational technology market is huge. Estimates suggest that in 2020, $250 billion will be spent World-wide on “Edtech.” Venture Capitalists continue to see this as a fertile sector, with $1.5 billion invested in Edtech companies in 2019. In addition, all major technology companies have growing sales teams in the Education vertical. With the Covid-19 Pandemic, the rush to educate in both K-12, University, and post-graduate settings is frenzied as are the “skills acquisition” and corporate training markets.
However, counter trends are afoot too. Even Bill Gates has recently suggested that the face-to-face school experience is irreplaceable; thousands of rising seniors are planning to take “Gap Years” to avoid having to experience University through their screens all the while paying handsomely for “education.” Parents groups largely view online education not as a substitute but a supplement for instructor-led education. These trends augur poorly for the “silver bullet” that EdTech was supposed to provide.
Five More Post-Pandemic Trends
1. Larger emphasis put on preventive healthcare in advanced economies.
The American College of Preventive Medicine rightly calls the current healthcare system a “sick-care” system. In this system, we spend the bulk of our medical resources (time, money, focus) on attending to already-unwell people with an exorbitant amount spent on prolonging the life of the elderly. While helping sick people is important, the key to solid public health is preventive medicine such that the population never contracts illness and disease. The pandemic has reminded us that already unhealthy folks- those with pre-existing conditions — are the most vulnerable; as such, advanced economies will shift focus to prevention-as-offense versus adopting a purely defensive stance on public health. The US will likely be a laggard here given its convoluted healthcare system and profit interests.
2. Unionization sees a return.
In the United States, the rate of unionization is at a low-point, hovering just above 10%. Even in the Reagan years, it was about 20%. A variety of factors can be adduced here, including deregulation, massive anti-union propaganda, and the valorization of the gig-economy. All evidence is that unions, even despite corruption, drive higher wages, better benefits, and provided a safety net for members. Pushback in the gig economy, led by activists, gig-workers, and municipalities, will coalesce into unionization, which will see a return as economic conditions post-pandemic warrant organization and agenda-based action.
3. Mental-health is emphasized in all societies.
Since the pandemic hit the US, mental health professionals have registered unprecedented demand for their services; Two-thirds of Americans report higher stress than before- attributable to the pandemic and the associated social-distancing and lockdown. As economic woes overtake fear, the need for mental health services will only increase; as such mental health will be foregrounded as national issues and will receive treatment on par with physical health.
4. Geographical- partisanship and nationalism increase.
Over the last twenty years- and much more so in the last ten- tribalism, nationalism, isolationism, and a variety of other factors that militate against both globalization and the idea of a common humanity have recrudesced. Most countries have adopted strict anti-immigration stances and are witness to internal divides- whether on the lines of race, religion, or creed- which continue to grow and manifest themselves violently. Borders and geography have played a large role in the political sphere in the last five years and the pandemic has only exacerbated this trend. Ultimately, which geography one calls home- whether this is expressed in the form of “which country?” or “which state/province within a country?” is a fundamental question- witness the vast differences in responses to the pandemic and attention to public health amongst the states in the US (and overlay that onto a Red vs. Blue map) and you get an idea for the partisan divides of the future.
5. Surveillance –Capitalism expands.
The surveillance state as a concept has been written about widely in the last 20 years; now, with the rise of AI and the open collaboration between governments and Big Tech- coupled with the concentration of AI power and data in the hands of very few organization- the ability to surveil in real-time has been enhanced. In the realm of disease and pandemic management, surveillance is necessary but public health will be used as the proximate excuse for constant upgrades and investment in governments’ and large corporations’ ability and desire to be in surveillance mode.
Any feedback? Email me at romi@thekkmgroup.com
